Riley's Rescue

Doman, Bronco, and a struggling offense were brought back to life in exhilarating fashion last Friday night by Prince Charming ... I mean Riley Nelson (it may be difficult to distinguish between the two considering those flowing locks of hair).  Riley came in and energized the team and they played inspired football for the last quarter against Utah State.  Take this for example, the offense had scored 6 touchdowns (1 vs. Ole Miss, 1 vs. Texas, 1 vs. Utah, 2 vs. UCF, and 1 earlier vs. USU) up through 4.75 games this season, Riley Nelson led the team to 2 touchdowns in just the fourth quarter!  I'm not saying that I believe Riley is the end-all, long-term solution, however, I certainly think you play him right now.  I don't think it should even be a question.  Perhaps if this was game 1 or 2 this season, but that fact that Heaps has had almost 5 games and has produced so little, in my mind I would start Nelson against San Jose State without hesitation.  I was already having doubts about Heaps abilities before the USU game (see prior blog posts), but I believe you play Nelson.  I certainly don't think he would have fared any worse than Heaps so far this season if he had been the quarterback.  I couldn't wait last season for the team to give the reins to Heaps and then Nelson made it easy with an injury, however, something is different this year with Heaps.  His throws are not nearly as accurate and he doesn't seem to have the confidence on the field that he expresses off the field.

Check out ESPN.com's article on the situation: http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/48779/is-there-at-qb-controversy-at-byu

USU Prediction

I think the Cougars have their backs against the wall again this year against the Aggies.  It almost feels like the Aggies should be favored coming into this game.  The 2010 loss ended up being a turning point for the BYU team last year, but I think it will determine largly the remainder of the season for the Cougars this year. Bronco is teetering on the verge of losing to both Utah State and Utah in back to back seasons for the first time since the 1962 and 1963 seasons. Possible scenarios:

LOSE TO USU: BYU falls to 2-3 and it will appear that BYU hasn't taken very many steps forward since last year.  Similar to last year the schedule softens considerably after the USU game and they should be pick up some wins against not very good teams, however, they would go to Oregon State at 3-3 and probably take a loss, then come back home and win against Idaho State, then get beat by TCU and sit at 4-5 with three games left and they would be fighting for bowl eligibility.  I couldn't really see the Cougars doing any better than 6-6 to close the season if they fall tonight to Utah State.

BEAT USU: BYU would move to 3-2 and it would appear that BYU has made strides since their humiliating defeat against Utah State last year.  It would be a big confidence boost heading into an easier part of their schedule where they should beat San Jose and then move to 4-2 and have some confidence heading into Oregon State.  If the offense has got on track by then, they should be able to beat Oregon State and move to 5-2.  I see them winning their last three home games from there and splitting the TCU/Hawaii road games and finishing 9-3. 

OUTCOME:

9-3 and 6-6 are drastically different outcomes and I think BYU's course could very likely be determined by the outcome in tonight's contest.  I think BYU's defense comes out strong and the offense and special teams provide just enough for the Cougars.

BYU 13 - USU 10

Ugh, Season Saver, & Heaps

UTAH

I didn't post the week following the Utah game - I figured if BYU could take a week off (against Utah) then I could take a week off from this blog ... I was too disappointed to write that week.  There wasn't nearly the buildup to the rivalry locally as there is most years, but the fact that BYU turned the ball over so much was incredibly frustrating.  I posted before the Utah game that game would be Cougar game #112 I have attended.  It would have to rank in the bottom 5 for sure.  I heard that in the last three losses to Utah, BYU has turned the ball over a combined 17 times - not a winning formula for sure.

CENTRAL FLORIDA

With the disappointment after the Utah loss I really felt like the game against Central Florida was a make or break for the remainder of the season.  It had a very similar feel to what San Diego State felt like last year when the Cougars came in 1-4 and just coming off a drubbing at Utah State.  In similar fashion the Cougars came out and played much better and with a strong special teams showing they took down the UCF Knights and moved to 2-2 on the season. 

HEAPS

I certainly haven't written Jake Heaps off, but from what I have seen thus far this season, I have to say that I'm not impressed.  I don't know if it's a sophomore slump, failure to meet high expectations, or perhaps ... GASP ... he isn't as good as we've all been led to believe that he will be.  I am started to have lingering doubts that it is the latter of the three.  Trust me when I write this, I want Heaps to be great, but from what I've seen he doesn't show a lot of fight.  Certainly he has all the physical skills needed - he is tall and has a cannon for an arm.  He says all the right things off the field.  However, I have yet to see the intangibles in Heaps that made so many other BYU quarterbacks great.  It is a little bit of fire in your gut and it is the ability lead your team to victory.  I certainly wouldn't say that Heaps has led the team to victory in either the Ole Miss or Central Florida games, but rather the defense and special teams have led the team to victory.  It is probably not fair to Heaps to compare him to Cougar QB greats from the past at this point, however, he has been hyped as one of the greats from the day he walked on campus, so I'll make the comparison to some of the greats and some of the not-so-greats from the past 20 years.

1989 - Ty Detmer's sophomore season: 265-412 (.643), 4,560 yards, 32 TDs, 15 INTs. TEAM: 10-3

1993 - John Walsh's sophomore season: 244-397 (.615), 3,727 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs. TEAM: 6-6
1997 - Kevin Feterik's sophomore season: 125-208 (.601), 1,767 yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs. TEAM: 6-5
2002 - Bret Engemann's sophomore season: 119-215 (.553), 1,334 yards, 6 TDs, 8 INTs. TEAM: 5-7

2004 - John Beck's sophomore season: 192-343 (.560), 2,563 yards, 15 TDs, 8 INTs. TEAM: 5-6

2007 - Max Hall's sophomore season: 298-496 (.601), 3,848 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs. TEAM: 11-2

so far through 4 games ...
2011 - Jake Heaps' sophomore season: 89-160 (.556), 855 yards, 3 TDs, 5 INTs. TEAM: 2-2
on pace for ...
2011 - Jake Heaps' projected season: 267-480 (.556), 2,565 yards, 9 TDs, 15 INTs. TEAM: 6-6

There is still two-thirds of the season left to play and I do believe Heaps will turn it around, but at this point his sophomore season is projecting out to be somewhere between Bret Engemann and John Beck's sophomore seasons, which both ended with losing records for the Cougars.  I'm tired of trying to predict when Jake Heaps' breakout game will be ... I'll just report the numbers and wait until he can show it on the field rather than just talk a good game in the media sessions.

I will post my game prediction for USU before kickoff on Friday night.

Utah Game Divination

This game always brings a lot of emotion and intensity to the field and to the stands.  I hope things will be under control for the Cougars home opener both on and off the field as I make the trek down to L.E.S. for another edition of THE RIVALRY GAME.  This will be the 9th rivalry game I have attended (other games include 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009).  The Cougars are 4-4 in the those games with an average score of BYU 33 Utah 28.  This past week I spent a little time calculating all the BYU games I have attended in person.  The game on Saturday night between BYU and Utah will be Cougar game # 112 I have personally attended.  While the overwhelming majority have occured in Provo (this will be #105 in Provo), I have seen the Cougars play from sea to shining sea - both of those games happened to be losses (1990 Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA in an awful loss to Texas A&M; 2006 in Chesnut Hill, MA in an overtime loss to Boston College).  I will post another blog next week with a full breakdown of winning percentage in games I have attended both home and away for the Cougars.  However, in anticipation of the game Saturday night I plan on the Cougars riding their current 7-game home winning streak in games I have attended (last loss coming to TCU in 2009, as I didn't attend last year's Nevada home game) to another victory.  The key will be the running game.  The team which has rushed for more yards in this annual matchup has usually come out on top - including last year's game which the Cougars only rushed for 65 yards compared to Utah's 89.  In fact the team which has rushed for more yards is 17-4 over the past 21 games (81% winning percentage).  So far this year that stat has held true - BYU out gained Ole Miss, but got out rushed by Texas.  If the Cougars expect to win they must control the line of scrimmage and score touchdowns!  Field goals (as shown by last week's game against Texas and last year's game against Utah) don't put opponents away - especially when all you can manage is field goals and the other team is able to hang around.  Both my brother and my dad expect one of the team's offenses to get going Saturday night, which seems a reasonable enough guess, however, history tells me that this game is usually a hard-fought, nail-biter and I would have to predict nothing less (although I would love a high powered Cougar offensive showcase).

BYU 22 Utah 20

Week #3

Texas Game Notes

The offense looked much better in the first half than in their season opener.  However, the offensive line failed to generate a push in the second half and the Cougars never got the running game going.  I believe the biggest issue on offense thus far is the pace.  Through two games the offense has been so sloooooooow.  SPEED IT UP DOMAN!  The slow pace not only has led to costly penalties (including a very costly delay of game penalty in 4th quarter right after the Cougars fell behind 17-16), but also makes it virtually impossible to gain any momentum offensively.  With one notable exception - a stretch of about 12 minutes from the end of the 1st quarter and most of the 2nd quarter against Texas when the Cougars clicked offensively and even ran some no huddle - the team is slow to get to the line and get the play off.  Several times against Texas, you could see Jake Heaps clapping his to get the snap in time.  I'm not certain if it is the play calling and that plays are getting in slow to Heaps, but the tempo absolutely must pick up if the Cougars and Heaps are going to be able to find any rhythm.  It seems as though after Heaps threw the interception late in the 2nd quarter Doman took a step back and said, "hey, we have the lead, let's slow it down and just try not to blow it."  It seems as though the reigns are on Heaps like they seemed to be for the first 6 or 7 games last year.  If Heaps is truly destined to be one of the great Cougar quarterbacks, then let him loose!  The offense needs to operate with a sense of urgency and purpose.  It is not drastically different from what I expected early in the season, but it seems like there is some much more potential.  OVERALL GRADE: B-

Utah Preview

One of the most closely contested and best rivalries in all of College Football resumes Saturday in Provo, Utah.  It will be the ninth BYU vs. Utah game I've attended (past games 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009) - all of which have been in Provo.  The games I've attended have been split 4-4.  Which is very indicative of the rivarly over the past 20 or so years.  I love the statistics surrounding this game.  I hope to be able to post some additional statistical trends later this week which demonstrate how close this has been over the past couple decades and what may be keys to victory this week.

OH, So close ... SINCE 1990:

BYU 10 wins    UTAH 11 wins

BYU Total Points Scored: 532

Utah Total Points Scored: 530

BYU Average Score: 25.33

Utah Average Score: 25.24

Overall Average Margin of Victory: 10.1 points

Average Margin of Victory over 15 games (removing outliers 1990, 1991, 1995, 1996, 2004, 2008): 4.4 points

Average Margin of Victory in 10 games played in Provo: 8.3

Games Decided by Less Than 10 Points: 15

Games Decided by 7 Points or Less: 14

Games Decided by 3 Points or Less: 9

Games with Lead Changes in Last 3 Minutes: 9

Overtime Games: 2 (both in Provo)

Austin Prognostication

The Cougars have a great opportunity today to pick up a victory against a traditional power.  Although Texas isn't a Top 10 team this year, it would still be a great win - especially on the road.  Professor Price made a nice observation about the BYU receivers (see comments on the last post) not getting separation last week against Ole Miss and he questioned if the Cougars wideouts could do it today against the Longhorns.  We've heard plenty about Hoffman and Apo being talented, but today they have a chance to show it against a quality opponent.  As will usually be the case this year, BYU's receivers will have the height advantage over the Texas DBs.  Texas corners and safeties average 6'0'' across the board.  Hoffman and Apo are 6'4'' and 6'3'' respectively.  Height alone will not make the difference, but I think the receivers and the offense in general feel like they have something to prove after only putting up one touchdown last week.  I expect that the offense will improve this week, but I still think they will take some time to, as Bronco says, reach their potential.  I expect a close game and I think the Cougars put it all together and pick up another road victory.

BYU 21 - Texas 17

Week #2

OLE MISS GRADES 

Well, it wasn't pretty, but better to come away with a 'W' less than loss - just ask Utah State.  The Cougars rallied for a 14-13 victory over Ole Miss and opened the season with a win for the 5th straight season.  Here is a quick breakdown of how I would grade the team's opening week performance.

OFFENSE: their ability to move the ball, but their low amount of points was about what I expected (see game prediction from last week).  Similar to the Boston College, Arizona, and Oklahoma seasons openers of years past it was more or less what I expected.  For some reason the team can't just click out of the gates.  That being said, though, Jake Heaps looked more like the Jake Heaps of the last six games from last season on the 4th quarter scoring drive which ended with Ross Apo's first touchdown reception as a Cougar.  They rushed for more yards than Ole Miss and passed for more yards.  GRADE: C-

DEFENSE: the defense was stout, although Ole Miss probably isn't the offensive juggernaut of the SEC, and they had some key injuries to running backs during the game.  That being said, the defense only gave up two fields goals and one on a short field (thanks for special teams coverage, see below).  Ultimately Van Noy's forced fumble, recovery, and subsequent touchdown were the difference.  If they play that well it will keep them in every game this year.  GRADE: A

SPECIAL TEAMS: the special teams unit was far from special.  A missed field goal, a shanked punt (11 yards), and giving up a long punt return which shifted the momentum and field position and allowed Ole Miss to get on the board first with a field goal. Riley Stephenson is either hot or cold and perhaps the same could be said for Justin Sorensen.  Not many return opportunities last week, but JD Falslev was adequate on punt returns.  GRADE: C

TEXAS PREVIEW

It could be easily argued who has more to prove in this one ... a Texas team looking to rebound from a mediocre season last year in which they didn't go to a bowl ... or an independent BYU team looked for a statement against a big time opponent (possibly a future conference foe?).  I think a win for BYU wins more to them than a win for Texas means to them, however, I think a Texas loss means more to them than a BYU loss means to them.  In short, if Texas loses, their fans have to think they are in trouble again, whereas if BYU loses they can still feel good about a 1-1 record over the first two road games.  It is difficult to put a lot of pressure on an early season game, but I certainly think the Cougars will be in for a special year if they can get two straight road victories to open the season.  It is not often the Cougars open the season with two or more games away from home.  Here is a quick recap of such instances since 1980:

2009 Season:

1 - (Neutral site) Oklahoma W, 14-13

2 - @ Tulane W, 54-3

Season Finish: 11-2

2000 Season:

1- @ Florida State L, 3-29

2- @ Virginia W, 38-35 (OT)

Season Finish: 6-6

1994 Season:

1 - @ Hawaii W, 13-12

2 - @ Air Force W, 45-21

Season Finish: 10-3

1991 Season:

1 - (Neutral) Florida State L, 28-44

2 - @ UCLA L, 23-27

Season Finish: 8-3-2

1982 Season:

1 - @ UNLV W, 27-0

2 - @ Georgia L, 14-17

Season Finish: 8-4

There is probably not a good enough sample size and of course, every team and season is different, however, both times the Cougars opened with victories away from home to start the season it led to 10 and 11 win seasons respectively.  If they win ... I predict they will win 10+ games this season.  I'll have my Texas score prediction up by Saturday morning.