Friday, September 19, 2008

UCLA Whallop and Howdy Cowboy!

The Cougars open MWC play against Wyoming ... the Cougars fresh off their spanking of the Bruins and the Cowboys just escaped War Memorial Stadium with a come-from-behind win over the Bison (yes, that's right the FCS "powerhouse" North Dakota State) ... the outcome of the game should not be in doubt. Bronco seems to have a knack of having the team ready to play after a huge game, examples:

2007-the Cougars follow up an emotional, conference-title clinching victory over the Utes at home and come back the next week to destroy San Diego State 48-27 on the road.

2006-following a major program victory against TCU in Fort Worth, the Cougs came home and defeated, ironically, San Diego State, 47-17. Freshman Kevin Craft was SDSU's quarterback that day ... he was ALSO the QB last Saturday for the Bruins and also suffered defeat. Defeat puts it nicely ...

The defense came up huge, Max Hall was as accurate as I have seen a quarterback, and I nearly lost my voice midway through the 2nd quarter when it was 35-0. It was a great game. The Cougars have so many weapons on offense it is scary to think how good they can continue to be.

Anyway, back to Bronco preparing the team ... the Cougars will come out and perform well. I would not expect a repeat of last week, but I think the Cougars' offense will roll up plenty of yards and points to get past the Cowboys.
PREDICTION:

BYU 41 WYOMING 13

Friday, September 12, 2008

UCLA vs. BYU Preview & Prediction

Saturday's game against the Bruins is probably the most meaningful, on a national stage since at least, since the Cougars' victory over Oregon in the 2006 Las Vegas Bowl. The Cougars have a real chance to set themselves up for a great run through the rest of the season with a victory against UCLA. Under Bronco, 6 of the team's 10 losses have come in September, two every year. The first 2-0 start has me believing that the team could go 4-0 in September this year, but Saturday's game will be tougher than the Washington game. UCLA is also young, not as young as the Huskies last weekend, but I think their defense will be more physical. If the Cougars defense can limit big plays and contain the Bruins, I don't think UCLA will be able to stay with the Cougars for four quarters.

However, the offense must eliminate turnovers. Six turnovers through two games has prevented the offense from being the dominating force that they can be. Max Hall has enough weapons to outpace the Bruins on Saturday, be he must not throw interceptions and the backs and receivers need to hold on to it as well. If the Cougars win the turnover battle, they will win the game.

What to Watch For: Kevin Craft threw for over 200 yards against the Cougars two years ago in an SDSU uniform, look for Craft to try and exploit the Cougars' defensive secondary. Shutting down Craft, or at least limiting him, coudl be the key to victory for BYU on Saturday.

PREDICTION:
BYU 27 - UCLA 24

Miami Rembered ...

Monday, September 8, 2008 marked the 18th anniversary of the one of the greatest game in BYU football history ... I had to do a quick post to pay tribute to the game:

Sept. 8, 1990

#1 Miami vs. BYU

Who could forget the Cougars' epic performance in their victory over number one ranked Miami in Provo. Ty Detmer grabbed the national media's attention by shredding the Hurricane defense in leading the Cougars to a 28-21 victory. Etched in the my memory are a few plays in particular ... first, Detmer, having a sense that pressure was coming, steps back and two Miami defenders collide, then he fires a touchdown pass. Second, Detmer hangs in the pocket and takes a wicked shot to the chin (which would later require stitches), but still manages to get a great throw to Chris Smith downfield for a huge first down. Lastly, I remember Detmer scrambling to his left and throwing a great touch pass against his body to Matt Bellini for the Cougars' first touchdown of the game. Quite a performance! It is without a doubt that best BYU game that I have attended and may still be the best I have ever seen, although BYU vs. Utah 2006 (aka Beck to Harline) probably rates slightly higher in the greatest games I have ever watched category.

Monday, September 8, 2008

The College Football Polls are Silly

First, let me say the Cougars do not look BCS worthy yet, the defense must improve greatly. However, they have been ranked high and the way the system is set up is that teams get ranked before they even play a game.
PHOTO Scott Winterton/DesNews
Therefore, the quandry lies in the fact that the Cougars win, they WIN, and they drop 3 spots in the AP poll? Yes, I understand the win was not as impressive as it probably should have been and the Cougars don't yet look like the next BCS buster, however, they won, albeit by one point on a last second blocked PAT. At the end of the season, if the Cougars were to run the table, there will be no asterisk by this game, it's simply a win. A few years ago, the BCS folks removed "Margin-of-Victory" from the BCS calculation formula because early season blowouts were over-valued and later in the season, top teams were tempted to run up the score so it looked better. True, I understand BYU didn't play conservative to win, they needed all they could give to get past the Huskies on Saturday ... but, dropping them three spots seems absolutely subjective (okay, again, I'm not naive, I realize the polls ARE subjective, which makes them and the determination of a national champion exactly that - SUBJECTIVE). The logic just makes no sense, let's follow the logic for a moment ...

let's suppose BYU beats UCLA in another close game that is determined in the final moments, then in October, they barely beat New Mexico and squeak by TCU, well, BYU would be sitting 8-0 and they would be out of the Top 25 because of their "close" wins ... silly, I say, just silly.

I think it happened in part because of the controversial celebration call against Jake Locker (which I agree probably should not have been called) which drew lots of national attention and the backlash hit BYU in the polls.

All in all, the system is the what it is. If BYU wants national respect, Saturday's game against UCLA is a huge hurdle to clear. More about the Cougars' 3rd matchup in 53 weeks with the Bruins later in the week. For now, let's now forget to give credit to Jan Jorgenson for coming through the Husky line and blocking the PAT attempt, 35-yard kicks are made more often than not and my guess is that they are blocked less than 5% of the time ... so hats off to the Cougar studs for getting another great block to preserve a win. This is easily the MOST overlooked aspect of the game - it was still the Cougars who blocked the kick. It wasn't the officials that stood in the way and knocked down the kick, although it should have just been a normal-length PAT. Great seasons are often full of close games that great teams find a way to win and average teams manage to lose. 2-0 under Bronco for the first time feels good, although it would have been nice to win without the negative attention thanks to the officials.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Panther Retrospective and Husky Prospective

LAST WEEK:
The good, the bad and the ugly summed up various parts of last week's game against Northern Iowa ... let's start with the good, which in the end overwhelmed any shortcomings and mistakes ... GOOD - Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, O'Neill Chambers, Austin Collie, Coleby Clawson, Justin Sorensen and others. Outside of the 3rd quarter, the Cougs put up 41 points and only turned the ball over once. Hall looked great and Pitta was spectacular, albeit against a FCS team, but the passing should be a real strength. Chambers showed flashes of being a great returner, although he made a fair catch on the 4-yard line ... the BAD - turnovers and big plays surrendered. Four turnovers may be acceptable against UNLV or SDSU, but not against the upper half of the MWC and not against UW on the road or UCLA at home ... and the UGLY - the 3rd quarter, need I say more?

All in all for a season opener it wasn't too bad. It was a win, thus a passing grade, but this team needs to improve and clean up the mistakes this week and in coming weeks. Last week's grade: B-. It could have been much crisper and the tendency to give up big plays on defense and Hall getting sacked and fumbling reminded of me of why they went 11-2 and not 13-0 last year.

THIS WEEK:
A trip to the the Emerald City for a showdown with UW in Husky Stadium awaits the Cougs this week. Honestly, I am a little nervous about the game. The Cougars should win, they are favored and after the Huskies got drubbed last week in Eugene, it really seems as if BYU should dominate the game, however, they must get over the road woes against non-conference opponents. If the defense doesn't give up big plays to Locker and the offense doesn't turn the ball over, BYU will win. In 1996, the Cougars had an early season game in Seattle and came out flat. They were unable to run the ball, got dominated on the lines and lost to an inferior team. It turned out to be the only loss in a 14-1 season. If Hall is sharp and gets protection the Cougs will win.

PREDICTION:

BYU 30 - Washington 24

Friday, August 29, 2008

Northern Iowa vs. BYU Preview

The season opener ... it should be a win and good start to the season. Should is the key word and although there was a shocker in Ann Arbor, there are numerous other games that are routes. I believe Bronco will have the troops ready to go and the Cougars will get a win.

If the offense is consistent and the defense stuffs that run the Cougs should dominate. UNI's strength lies in their running game, so if BYU is able to shut down the running game it could be over by halftime.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: Max Hall - while this game might not be too telling to how much he has progressed, it should give us a flavor of his leadership and presence on the field. Look for Hall to hit Reed, Collie and Pitta a lot in the early going and probably not throw many balls in the second half.

PREDICTION: BYU 44 UNI 13

Thursday, August 28, 2008

2008 SEASON PREVIEW

Great news for our blog readers … all three of you should be excited … the blog is back now that football has returned. I had intended to blog during basketball season as well, but a few little things like graduate school and trying to find a job impeded my progress. However, without further ado, let’s get into the 2008 season which is nearly upon us …

2008 SEASON PREVIEW
For any of you that have been following the newspapers, both locally and nationally, and for those who have tuned into local talk radio you know that the expectations are very high for the Cougars campaign this fall. While some believe that anything less than an undefeated season would be a disappointment I would disagree, however, I do think anything less than 11 total wins (including bowl game) and another conference championship would be a disappointment. That being said, I don’t think going undefeated is out of the realm of possibility … here is my take:
The offense will almost assuredly be better this year than it was last year, with 10 returning starters, plus additions like J.J. DiLuigi and O’Neill Chambers the offense is set for a BIG year.

Bronco has proved over his tenure as ‘D coordinator and head coach that he knows how to put together a solid defense that has been stingy against the run. The weakness on defense occurs when they play teams that can throw the ball effectively. Take last year for example, Tulsa was by far the best passing team BYU faced and the defense surrendered 55 points and the team suffered one of their two losses. The year before that one of the two losses came to BC’s Matt Ryan. The year before that, TCU and Notre Dame put up big numbers against the Cougars’ defense through the air. All things considered I think the defensive secondary has been solid, but it worries me when the Cougars go up against a top-notch passing offense. Fortunately, this year the Cougars toughest aerial challenge may come against Utah at the end of the year. Last year’s defense only gave up four or more touchdowns one time (Tulsa) and Max’s crew should be able to put up at least four scores a game (plus, add in an improved kicking game).

All that being said, my preseason prediction, however meaningless it is, is 12-1. I will take it one game at a time during the season, so my week-by-week cumulative predictions may vary from the predicted 12-1.

Tomorrow I will post my pre-game breakdown of the season opener against Northern Iowa. Please vote on the poll on the right-hand side of the blog and give your opinion.