BYU vs. UCLA Preview - Scott

Game Day:
My prediction is that the Cougar will get revenge for one of their two losses on the season that came when the young Cougars were cutting their teeth in SoCal. The Cougars were more physical and really outplayed the Bruins, except they didn't take care of the ball, including a 4th quarter turnover that cost them a chance to gain the lead.

Who to Watch:
Harvey Unga - he is the feature of the offense and if he gets going that will bode well for the Cougars. He didn't get many touches against UCLA in the September game, but he has been the most consistent and if he goes for over 100 yards on the ground the Cougs should win.

Max Hall - a pick-six in the first half and a costly fumble in Bruin territory in the second half will be enough extra motivation for Hall to shred the UCLA defense. Besides the turnovers he had a big game, especially in the 2nd half. Look for Hall to pick up where he left off in the season in San Diego.

Prediction:
BYU 31 - UCLA 20

San Diego St. Preview - Scott

Brigham Young @ SDSU 12/1/07
This week's season finale almost feels like a bowl game - being that the Cougars have already beat the Utes and clinched the MWC title and the fact that it will be December already. If the Cougars play in the Las Vegas Bowl, it's only 3 weeks after Saturday's game. However slim their chances, they still do have a chance to play in a BCS game. Basically, to have a shot at a BCS berth, the Cougars need to win Saturday and they need UCLA to beat USC, Arizona to beat Arizona State and they need Washington to beat Hawaii. If all those things happen they Cougars would have a shot - still no guarantee.

BYU Win Will If ...
They avoid the letdown and play consistent football on offense and defense. The Cougars did play SDSU in San Diego following a home win over Utah in 1989 with Ty Detmer at the helm (as a Sophomore QB too, just like Max Hall). The Cougars had no trouble with the Aztecs on that day, winning 48-27. I expect a similar performance from the Cougars, although not as high scoring ... if they limit SDSU's ability to run the ball and prevent the big plays in the passing game they will win.

Who to Watch ...
Jan Jorgensen - the MWC leader in sacks has been on a roll the past few weeks and look for him to disrupt Kevin O'Connell's ability to find receivers.

Austin Collie - has reeled off 4 straight 100-yard receiving games, including the 49-yard catch to set up the winning score against Utah last week.

Prediction ...
BYU 30 - SDSU 17

BYU 17 - Utah 10

4th and 18? No Problem!
Another great finish to an otherwise unspectacular, but intense game ended with the Cougars coming out on top of the Utes 17-10. The win improves the Cougar win streak to 8 straight (2nd longest in the Country), gives them a 9-2 record and they moved up to #19 in the BCS standings.

Bronco really is restoring the program to conference dominance, home dominance, and national prominence. Also, Bronco is restoring State Dominance (okay, not there yet, but 2 straight wins over Utah hasn't happened since '00-'01 and before that since '91-'92). I will write more thoughts about the game later in the week. For now enjoy lots of great photos like this one on Dan Ransom's webpage:
www.danransom.com/blog

Also, follow this link to see all the pictures Dan took at the game:
http://www.danransom.com/TripReports/?p=140

Gameday Prediction - Spencer

The prediction would be a little more accurate if posted a few hours later, but oh well. Look for the game to have a similar feel as the last 7...and a similar result. BYU 27 Utah 24.

Rivalry Week - Prediction (Scott)

Well, it is finally here ... the BIG GAME! Which means, at last, it's my time to predict the outcome of the game. I am excited that I have had some success the past few weeks predicting the BYU game scores the past few weeks, however, I'll quickly admit that this game is totally unique and you can pretty much throw out the records, the stats, and everything you think will happen.

BYU Will Win If...
The Cougars continue to control the game by managing the clock and getting defensive stops ... that has been the winning formula this year. However, emotion always runs high in this game and I don't anticipate the Cougars being in control the entire game like the have been the past few weeks. I think they will win if they win 2 out of 3 key areas:
*Turnovers - team that wins the turnover battle is 11-3 in recent history.
*Rushing Yards - team that rushes for more yards is 14-4 in recent history.
*Time of Possession - key for the Cougars if they are to control the game.

Who to Watch...
Harvey Unga - we'll see if Unga can show more moves than Darrell Mack (Mack said earlier in the week that he has more moves than Unga will ever have). If Unga can run well and help the Cougars control the game. Also, he needs just 91 yards to reach the 1,000 yard mark.

Bryan Kehl - this will be his last chance to beat the Utes in Provo. He will lead the Cougars emotionally and defense and will come up with big plays to stop the Utes.

Prediction...
Statistics, both historically and this year (see previous post Inside the Numbers), indicate that this game will be close. Also, my gut tells me this will be a close one. I feel most like comparing this game to the '85 game when BYU pulled away late and won 38-28. However, this one will be closer than that. BYU 28 - Utah 27

Bronco Mendenhall Show

They gave me a "Y" t-shirt for wearing Cougar blue.
Bronco Mendenhall signing my t-shirt.
The Bronco Mendenhall show at Ken Garff Ford in American Fork. Greg Wrubel is sitting at the table in front. Mark Lyons and Coach Mendenhall are sitting behind the line of fans waiting for autographs.

Rivalry Week - Inside the Numbers

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I have been most excited about this post this week and I hope you find the numbers interesting as well.
As a preface to this statistics - I have analyzed BYU vs. Utah game statistics and season statistics for the past 18 years (dating back to 1989). As I stated earlier, the matchup has been about as even as you can be. Check out the evenness of the series, numbers in the games, and trends going into the annual game.

EVEN-STEVEN:
*Last 18 Games: 9-9
*Average Score: BYU 29 - Utah 28
*BYU Average Points per Game: 28.83
*Utah Average Points per Game: 27.61
*Average Margin of Victory: 12 points
*Average Margin of Victory (minus '89,'90,'91,'04): 6 points
*12 Times the Margin of Victory Less Than 10 points
*7 Times the Margin of Victory 3 points of Less
**Taking BYU's Average Points per Game from 2007 (30.9) and Utes' Points Allowed per Game in 2007 (15.5), BYU should score 23.2.
**Taking Utah's Average Points per Game from 2007 (26.9) and BYU's Points Allowed per Game in 2007 (18.8), Utah should score 22.85.
***Strictly by the numbers the score should be BYU 23.2 - Utah 22.85. Not Utah by 5, but BYU by 0.35.

NUMBERS IN THE GAME:
*Team that Rushes for More Yards in the Game: 14-4 (78%)
*Team that Passes for More Yards in the Game: 8-10 (44%)
*Team that Wins the Turnover Battle: 11-3 (79%) - 4 times turnovers even
*Team that Rushes for More Yards and Wins Turnover Battle: 10-1 (91%)

TRENDS GOING INTO THE ANNUAL GAME:
*When BYU comes in with Winning(W)-Streak: 9-4 (69%)
*When BYU comes in with Losing(L)-Streak: 0-5 (0%)
*When Utah comes in with W-Streak: 8-8 (50%)
*When Utah comes in with L-Streak: 1-1 (50%)
*When Both come in with W-Streaks: BYU is 9-2 (82%)
*Never have Both Teams come in with L-Streaks: ---
*When Both come in with W2+ Streaks: BYU 4-1 (80%)
*When Both come in with W3+ Streaks: BYU 2-1 (67%)
*When BYU comes in with W3+ Streak: 7-2 (78%)
*When BYU comes in with W4+ Streak: 6-1 (86%)
*When BYU comes in with W5+ Streak: 5-0 (100%)
*When Utah comes in with W2+ Streak: 4-5 (44%)
*When Utah comes in with W3+ Streak: 2-2 (50%)
*When Utah comes in with W4+ Streak: 1-0 (100%)
*When Utah comes in with W5+ Streak: 1-0 (100%)
*When Both teams come in with 7+ wins: BYU 5-2 (71%)
*When Both teams come in with 8+ wins: 1-1 (50%)
*When Both teams come in with 4+ conference wins: 6-6 (50%)
*When Both teams come in with 5+ conference wins: BYU 3-2 (60%)
*When BYU comes in undefeated in conference: 5-0 (100%)
*When Both teams have combined 2 or less losses in conference: BYU 3-1 (75%)
*When Both teams have combined 3 or less losses in conference: BYU 5-4 (56%)

Rivalry Week - Matchup Comparison

Today, I wanted to compare the players at various positions and decide which team has the edge. In looking at various positions (QB, RB, WR, OL, DL & LB, DB, Special Teams, Coaches) I looked at season statistics and how consistent the players have been. Without further ado, here's the comparison.

Quarterbacks
Brian Johnson has not been expected to win games soley with his throwing ability, he only averages hrowing for 165 yards per game. That said, he and Max Hall have about the same efficiency. Johnson has a higher completion percentage, but Hall has thrown for more yards and more touchdowns. If Hall's shoulder is healthy BYU should have the edge in the passing game.
EDGE: BYU

Running Backs
Darrell Mack has already run for nearly 1100 yards and scored 9 touchdowns. Ray Stowers has shown some ability to run the ball as well, but the Ute running game is pretty much Darrell Mack and he has been a great runner. BYU back Harvery Unga will most likely reach 1,000 yards on the season, as he now sits at 909 on the year with two games left. Unga also has 9 touchdowns on the year. Tonga has comparable numbers with Stowers, except that he has scored 8 times on the ground. BYU throws to their backs more with Unga gaining over 500 yards receiving, compared to only 113 for Mack. However, as far as running the ball goes, which often determines who wins this matchup (see more tomorrow in the numbers breakdown), the Utes have a slight edge.
EDGE: Utah

Wide Receivers
Richards, Godfrey, Wilson and Hernandez have all been good targets for Johnson and all have over 250 yards receiving on the year and all but one have multiple touchdowns. Again, the Utes have not had to pass as much in their games this year as BYU has. BYU's corps are led by Pitta and Collie, who both have nearly 700 yards on the year. Reed, Allen and Unga have all been solid as well and all have over 250 yards. BYU has more weapons and Hall can really spread it around and find the open receiver.
EDGE: BYU

Offensive Line
Utah averages more yards on the run per game, but the line has also surrendered 25 sacks on the year. Hard to argue with 168 yards on the ground per game though. BYU's line seems to have underacheived this year, but perhaps that is because Hall has really stepped up and they haven't had to rely on the running game like many people anticipated in the preseason. Still, the Cougars average 137 yards on the ground and the line has only given up 16 sacks on the season. Utah prefers the run and BYU the pass and the numbers support those strengths.
EDGE: Even

Defense Line and Linebacks
The Utes seem more vulnerable to the run, giving up 129 yards per game. However, they have also come up with 35 sacks and the run defense has been improving all year long with especially strong performances the last two weeks. BYU's D-Line may be the most underrated part of their team and the linebackers are the key component with their speed. They only allow 92 yards on the ground per game and they have come up with 24 sacks on the season. With the improved play of the Utes' defense this one is very close.
EDGE: Even

Secondary
The Utes give up less than 200 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have not been as stellar, but since the Tulsa game, they have been fairly solid. The Cougars are banged up in the secondary and the edge goes the Utes.
EDGE: Utah

Special Teams
The Cougars special teams have team anything but special this year, except perhaps the return game. However, the other two areas have shown improvement and have not had the mishaps that plagued them earlier in the year. Still, Payne's six field goals pales in comparison to Sakoda's 18 field goals. Sakoda is the conference's best field goal kicker and considering how close these game are could very well be the difference. The Cougars have to hope for big returns from Collie and Mahuika and hope that Santiago and Payne are consistent and mistake free.
EDGE: Utah

Coaching
It was easy to criticize Kyle Wittingham early in the year when the Utes started 1-3, but he has done a nice job rebounding by winning 7 straight. He seems very emotional and his team plays with lots of emotion. Credit goes to Wittingham and the Utes for not melting down against a weaker opponent after the 1-3 start. Overall Wittingham is now 23-13 with a 15-9 record in the MWC.
Bronco is the model of consistency and the team has really shown that over the last few weeks and the Cougars are also riding a 7-game win streak. Bronco has the Cougars' players and the fans "fully invested" and the sellouts and 11-game home win streak to prove it. Overall, Bronco is 25-10 with a 19-3 MWC record.
Dick Harmon wrote a good article in the DesNews comparing the two:
http://deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,695229223,00.html
With Bronco's superior conference record and better conference finishes both full seasons ('05 -2nd, '06 -1st) he gets the nod.
EDGE: BYU

Rivalry Week 2007 - RANKINGS

Ranking the Best BYU vs. Utah Games

As a preface to these rankings, I tried to be somewhat objective (at least as objective as a die-hard BYU fan can be) in thinking about the best games. I ordered the rankings taking into account three things:

*DRAMA (how dramatic the game was, decided in the last few minutes or seconds)

*SEASON SIGNIFICANCE (how much the game meant to the team, above and beyond pride, taking into account conference championship implications, national rankings, perfect seasons, and breaking of streaks)

*BACK AND FORTH (lead changes, momentum swings, etc)

TOP 10:

1. 2006: BYU 33 - Utah 31 Classic game, BYU jumps out to a 14-0 lead, then falls behind 24-14 going into the 4th quarter. Beck leads the Cougars to two touchdowns and takes 27-24 lead, Utes score to go up 31-27 with just 1:19 left. Then John Beck hits Jonny Harline with no time left and BYU takes home the victory and ends the Utes 4-game winning streak in the series.

2. 1993: Utah 34 - BYU 31 The Utes may still consider this one the greatest game for them, partly because of the way it was won, a 55-yard field goal with 25 seconds left, but also the fact that it was the Utes first win in Provo since 1971 and BYU had won 19 of the previous 21 in the series.

3. 2001: BYU 24 - Utah 21 With the Utes leading 21-10 in the fourth quarter, Brandon Doman and Luke Staley put together two touchdowns in the final five minutes and gave the Cougs their first win over the Utes in Provo in a decade. Also, the win kept the Cougars undefeated season alive.

4-tie. 2000: BYU 34 - Utah 27 It has been called the "Miracle for LaVell" and the Cougars, after having dominated the game for 3 quarters and enjoying a 26-10 advantage, fell behind 27-26 and needed Brandon Doman to hit Jonathon Pittman on back-to-back bombs converting a 4th and 23 from their own 10 yard-line. Fitting for LaVell, the man who turned the series history on its head by winning 22 out of 29 games against the Utes.

4-tie. 1994: Utah 34 - BYU 31 The Utes claimed their second victory in a row over the Cougars by scoring two touchdowns in the last 6:30 of the game. Their touchdowns sandwiched a John Walsh touchdown to Mike Johnston with 2 minutes left. The Utes got a long kickoff return and scored the game winner with less than a minute to go. This one ties with the LaVell game because of how good both teams were this year (BYU finished 10-3 and the Utes finished 11-2 and both finished in the top 10 nationally)

6. 2005: Utah 41 - BYU 34 OT This game makes the list for a few reasons, one being the fact that it was the first overtime game in the series history and another that the halves were dominated so thoroughly by each team. The Utes held a commanding 24-3 lead at halftime with backup QB Brett Ratliff leading the team. The second half belonged to BYU who came all the way back, outscoring the Utes 31-10 in the second half to tie it at 34. The Utes converted on their series and the Cougars couldn't answer (redemption would have to wait another year).

7. 1998: BYU 26 - Utah 24 The "doink" heard round the state was Ryan Kaneshiro's chip-shot field goal missed in the closing seconds perserving a BYU victory and giving the Cougars the WAC Northern Division title. The Utes trailed 26-17 with only a few minutes to go, but a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown gave Utah hope. They got the ball back and drove down inside the Cougar redzone, but Kaneshiro's kick hit off the right upright.

8. 1999: Utah 20 - BYU 17 The Utes got a piece of the first ever MWC title by beating the Cougar again in Provo. Kevin Feterik's touchdown pass gave the Cougars reason to believe another comeback was in the works, but an interception late in the 4th quarter gave the Utes they victory and a share of the title with BYU and CSU.

9. 1985: BYU 38 - Utah 28 The game featured stars on both sides of the ball and both teams came in with good records, BYU 9-2, Utah 8-3. It was tied 21-21 at halftime. The Cougars controlled the 3rd quarter, but in the snow blizzard, the Utes battled back to within 31-28 midway through the 4th quarter. Lakei Heimuli broke through the Utes' line and went 83 yards for the score with just 7 minutes to go. The win gave the Cougars a shot at the conference title the following week against AFA (a loss and that game wouldn't have mattered against an undefeated AFA team).

10. 1996: BYU 37 - Utah 17 This one was a little self-indulgent and shows my BYU pride, but as far as the Cougars go, this had to be one of the best games in the last 30 years. The Utes had taken 3 straight in the series (2 in Provo). The Cougs went on the hill and dominated the Utes from start to finish, beating them by 20 and it wasn't even that close. The Cougars ran for over 350 yards, Sarkisian only passed for 70 yards and the Cougars continued their march to an amazing 14-1 season.

Rivalry Week 2007

Recent History

No matter which side you cheer for in this rivalry you have to admit the past two decades have produced some of the best games played in this rivalry ever and it has been about as even as you can be: in fact, over the previous 18 games between these two schools, they are split 9-9, each winning 9 times, BYU getting wins at home in 1989, 1991 and 2001 and in SLC in 1990, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2006; and Utah winning at home in 1994, 2002, and 2004 and winning in Provo in 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003, and 2005.

The road team wins more often than the home team wins in this stretch (each team going just 3-6 at home, but 6-3 on the road).

THIS WEEK:

This week the True Blue Cougar blog invites you to check out a series of posts about the Rivalry, including matchups, predictions, statistical trends and always a chance for you to weigh in on various poll questions (check out the first one on the right of this post).

TUESDAY: Ranking the best BYU vs. Utah games of the last 30 years
WEDNESDAY: Matchups - a comparison of both team's offense, defense, and special teams
THURSDAY: Inside the Numbers - statistical breakdown and analysis of season and historical stats
FRIDAY: Prediction - from both Scott and Spencer
SATURDAY: Game Day - final thoughts and analysis before kickoff
SUNDAY: Game Review

Wyoming Preview - Spencer

No doubt playing in Wyoming is a tough row to hoe. The weather can be miserable. You are really lucky if a cold wind is all you get. You're lucky if there are piles of snow on the sidelines and not large flakes coming down at kick-off this time of year. The fans love their 'pokes and can be very boisterous.
The key for the Cougars is to gain momentum early. If the crowed gets into it, and Wyoming gets an early lead, it will be a tough afternoon for the Cougars. If BYU scores first, and plays solid defese - not neccesarily turnovers, but 3-and-outs, it will be a long afternoon for the Cowboys.
It is a noon kick-off, which BYU seems to play well at that time of day - in the sun and with warmer temps. All in all, it should be a good warm-up for rivalry week. BYU 30 Wyoming 27.

BYU @ Wyoming Preview - Scott

LAST WEEK'S RECAP: BYU 27 - TCU 22
The Cougars got a nice victory over a decent TCU team that has underperformed this year. While BYU turned the ball over twice (and only got one turnover), they continued to accentuate their strengths by playing pretty solid defense, controling the clock and converting on 3rd downs. Especially on 3rd downs, going 13 for 20 (65%). Max Hall came up with a couple of key runs and make some really nice passes. Just like most of their wins this year - not spectacular, but sufficient to get the job done. The Cougs moved to within one win of clinching at least a share of the MWC championship.

THIS WEEK'S MATCHUP: BYU @ WYOMING
The Cowboys opened up the season 4-1, including a win over Virginia (which really baffles when you consider how good Virginia has been in the ACC this year), but since then Wyoming has flipped and has gone 1-4 and come into this Saturday's game riding a 2-game losing streak and a 5-5 record. The Cowboys were sent home licking their wounds after a 50-0 defeat at the hands of Utah last week. This should provide extra fuel for the fire of wanting to win this week ... not that the Cowboys need anything extra to get up for BYU in Laramie. Last season, Wyoming went to Provo with one of the top defenses in the country and the Cougars whipped then 55-7. It will certainly be closer this year in Laramie. The weather shouldn't be a factor as temps are expected to be in the mid-50s and only a 10% of showers.

BYU will win if ...
I can't really say they need to not turn the ball over, because everytime I do, they lose the turnover battle and still win the game ... however, I will say that if they win the turnover battle their chances of winning are greatly increased. The Cougars' ability to still manage the game has been the key to continued winning. If they can control the clock by running the ball, converting 3rd downs and getting defensive stops they will win the game.

Photo Courtesy of Dan Ransom (www.danransom.com/blog)

Who to Watch ...
Kellen Fowler - he will be starting in place of the injured Quinn Gooch. He did recover a fumble in the end zone last week against TCU, but the play got overturned on instant replay. In Bronco's system he should fill in nicely as other players have throughout the year so far.

Dennis Pitta - he is one of Hall's favorite targets - often, it seems on 3rd downs - and his good size, ability to get open, and soft hands make him an incredibly valuable asset on offense. Look for a big game from Pitta, perhaps over 100 yards.

Prediction ...
BYU 28 - Wyoming 17

Has Mendenhall Done It? - Scott

BYU BEATS TCU 27-22
With Thursday's victory over TCU the Cougars moved to 7-2 on the season and 5-0 in the conference ... however, while I came away overall satisfied with the win, I was a little disappointed that the Cougars didn't win by more. When I realized that was my feeling, I was struck by how much has changed in a matter of just a few years:

In 2002-2004, under head coach Gary Crowton, I, and I would include most fans, would have taken such a win in a heartbeat, any win, just a win was huge.

In 2005, coach Mendenhall's first season, I was also happy with just about any win and to become bowl eligible was a great feat (6 wins).

After last season's 11-2 campaign and this year's 7-2 start, Mendenhall has revived the Cougar program to the point where just winning and just becoming bowl eligible does mean as much, expectations are higher - conference championships are again the expectation and maybe more (raising the bar).

Mendenhall's troops have reeled off 11 straight wins at Lavell Edwards Stadium (first time since '91), restoring home dominance, and have won 13 straight conference games (longest streak since '83-'85 in the WAC). The Cougars are one win away from securing their second MWC championship in a row, first time they have won back-to-back conference titles since '95-'96 and two more wins would mean back-to-back outright titles, which would be the first time since '90-'91. A strong finish, 10-2 for example, this season could further establish momentum and consistency for the upcoming years. Congrats to Coach Mendenhall, his staff and perhaps most of all the players! GO COUGARS!

TCU Preview - Spencer

No question this is a program defining moment for BYU, at least in the Bronco Mendenhall era. Bronco has proven that he can win the big game (TCU, Utah, and Oregon in 2006), and win a conference championship. However, can he do this on a consistent basis like was done in the Lavell Edwards era where BYU at least shared a piece of the conference crown year after year.
BYU will win if they come out with emotion, protect the ball, and stop TCU from controlling the line of scrimmage.
Prediction: the Cougars play with intensity, focus, and determination and move the program to the next level. BYU 42 TCU 10.

CSU Review & TCU Preview - Scott

Colorado State vs. BYU 11/3/07
The Cougars handled the Rams about like I expected (see previous post: my prediction was 33-9) in winning fairly easily 35-16. I have to give credit to my co-author on this blog, Spencer, who almost exactly predicted the final score with his 35-17 prediction.
The Cougars did gain some momentum heading into this week's important match up with TCU on Thursday night. I think the Cougars accomplished a few things with the win over CSU:


1) Re-established the ability to beat teams through the air. In a game that many anticipated would be dominated by the Cougar's ground game, Max Hall proved his ability to find receivers and helped propel the Cougars to victory.


2) Shaking off the Rust - the Cougars still haven't played a Div-I opponent with a winning record since beating the Lobos in New Mexico at the end of September, but after two bye weeks and a game against Div-II Eastern Washington, this game had to feel good and gets the Cougars ready for what will probably be the toughest stretch of opponents all season (TCU, @ Wyo, Utah).


3) Remained unbeaten in MWC play - it really doesn't feel like this team scares anybody ... like '06 team that dominated opponents ... they have won games, though at times unspectacular, and remain the team to beat in the MWC at 4-0 and need only two wins in their last four to grab at least a share of the title.


TCU vs. BYU 11/8/07
In the preseason, this game was being built as the game that was supposed to determine the MWC champion ... now that November has arrived we see that that preseason billing wasn't correct; however, there is still plenty at stake for both teams.


TCU - the Horned Frogs have a chance to become bowl eligible and move to 6-4 on the season and back to .500 in the conference with a win over BYU on Thursday night. With MWC games still against UNLV and San Diego State the Frogs will likely get to at least 7 wins and depending on how things shake out, may or may not get a bowl invitation with only 7 wins (considering BYU, Utah, New Mexico, Air Force could all have more wins). Beyond bowl invitations, the Frogs have a chance to regain some of the luster that they have lost within the conference (going 14-2 during first 2 years in MWC and going only 2-3 this season to date). Also, a chance to avenge a home loss to the Cougars last year in which John Beck, heavily taped ankles and all, rocked the Frogs in a 31-17 that wasn't actually that close.


BYU - it may seem the Cougars have less to play for, but without sounding too much like Bronco ... this is the most important game of the season (this week at least). A win on Thursday will move the Cougars within one win of getting at least a piece of the MWC title. The Cougars also need to get a win against a quality opponent and while TCU doesn't represent a top 25 team or a BCS-conference foe, they are certainly an upgrade from UNLV, Eastern Washington, and CSU. A loss against TCU could shake the Cougars confidence heading into the final three games of the season.
BYU Will Win If ...
The Cougar defense plays a great game ... I don't think the offense will dominate TCU (which probably represents the best defense BYU has seen all year), but Max Hall has enough weapons to move the ball and score enough to win the game ... so the defense will be critical. The TCU offense has improved as the season has progressed, as one would expect having a Freshman QB, but they are not asking Andy Dalton to win games for the team, when they have asked him to win games without being able to run the ball they have lost every time this year, check out the numbers:

In 5 Wins this Season TCU averages:
Passing
Comp.-Att., Yards, Total TD/INT
16 - 28, 201, 7/0
Rushing Yards
182.4 ypg

In 4 Losses this Season TCU averages:
Passing
Comp.-Att., Yards, Total TD/INT
20 - 45, 226, 4/8
Rushing Yards
90 ypg

Basically, when opposing defenses have limited TCU's ability to run the ball, they have forced Dalton to beat them and he has failed to beat teams that way. In fact, in their 4 losses he has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and he attempted almost 17 more passes per game in those losses. Thus, the key will be to limit the Frogs ability to run the ball and make Dalton try to beat them through the air. Utah held the Frogs to only 94 rushing yards and Dalton threw four interceptions.

PREDICTION ... BYU 24 -TCU 20

Colorado State Preview - Spencer

So far this year, they have been able to beat teams despite turnovers, dropped balls, and penalties. They can get by CSU without much improvement, but will have problems with TCU, Wyoming, and Utah.
Look for the Cougars to exploit CSU's run defense. This will make the game move faster, and wear down the rams, but will leave questions about BYU's passing game unanswered.
Pre-game impression:
The Cougars will win 35-17, leading most of the way. The offensive will throw 2 picks, and lose a fumble. Overall, a little momentum will be gained, but the true character of the team will be revealed againt the next opponent.

Colorado State vs. BYU Preview - Scott

This week's match up will be a very telling game for the Cougars. The Colorado State Rams come to town with only one win on the season. However, for whatever it's worth (which may not be much) they have played BCS conference opponents like Colorado and California extremely close. This probably goes to show that when they play at their capacity they can be a good football team.

For the Cougars this game is a chance to get back on the field after what seems to be a month off (really only 2 weeks, but 3 weeks since the last D-I foe and 5 weeks since the last D-I foe with a winning record). Like Bronco has said, this is the start to the 2nd half of the their season. In some ways, it kind of feels like a season opener. Max Hall needs to come out and show improvement and his ability to throw the ball down field and underneath. This will not be so vital for Saturday's game as it will be for establishing momentum and consistency in the passing game for the rest of the season.

Photo Courtesy of Dan Ransom (http://www.danransom.com/)

BYU WILL WIN THE GAME IF ...

They manage what Bronco calls Ball Security - this has been written about in the papers and Bronco has addressed it as being a point of emphasis in practice ... and it continues to be the offense's Achilles heal this season. If the Cougars win the turnover battle, they will win the game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH ...

Austin Collie - he is perhaps as healthy as he has been since the Tulsa game, in which he accounted for over 300 all-purpose yards. He returned kicks in practice this week - could be huge in the game. Also look for Hall to try and find Collie deep.

Harvey Unga - having amassed four 100-yard games this season (1st BYU freshman to ever do that) he should easily break the freshman rushing record. It has been well documented that when BYU runs the ball over 100, 150, and 200 yards respectively as a team, they are increasingly more dominant. Unga will be the key to another successful Cougar outing if he can exploit the weak rush defense of CSU.

PREDICTION ...

BYU 33 - CSU 9

Purpose of the Blog

Anyone that knows me knows that I'm a Cougar aficionado, true blue through and through. I wanted to create this blog as a way to share my thoughts and insights into BYU football and basketball with friends, family and anyone else who is desperate enough to get their Cougar fix from a life-long BYU fan.

In doing this I don't consider myself an expert, although I have either watched, listened to, or attended nearly every BYU football game over the past 20 years (outside of the two years I spent on a mission in Brazil). I have been regulated to more listening than watching since moving to New York and I dearly miss not being able to attend the games. At one time, thanks to the generosity of my parents, I attended 33 consecutive BYU homes games (1989-1994, I missed the Arizona State homecoming game in '94).

My brother, Spencer, will also join me in posting to this blog. Hopefully, you find it interesting, entertaining, and insightful.