Statistical Trends from 2010 and Prediction for Season Opener

I sat watching the fourth quarter of the TCU vs. Baylor game on ESPN tonight (what a game by the way) thinking about how Jake Heaps might be able to pick apart TCU's defensive secondary ... well, there are several games before we'll find out how the Cougars fare against the Frogs, but only hours now until we find out how the Y stacks up against the Rebels.

Before I get to the game breakdown here are some interesting trends from last season.

BYU's record in 2010 when ...

BYU rushed for more yards than their opponent: 7-0

BYU passed for more yards than their opponent: 3-4

BYU passed and rushed for more yards than their opponent: 3-0

BYU had more total yards than their opponent: 7-0

BYU won the turnover battle: 3-2

BYU lost the turnover battle: 2-4

Turnover battle was equal: 2-0

BYU won the turnover battle by at least +2: 2-2

BYU vs. Ole Miss Game Prediction:

I think the game will very difficult for BYU to win.  The way I have heard some people talking about the Cougars this year it seems like a foregone conclusion that Jake Heaps and Cougars will roll over their opponents, however, I think it will take Jake and offensive coordinator Brandon Doman a few games to really get clicking.  I hope I'm wrong and Heaps and Co. comes out firing on all cylinders.  A few trends from the Bronco era make me think it will be a close game.  Think back to 2006 when the Cougars opened up at Arizona ... this was the same team that had John Beck, Curtis Brown, and Johnny Harline romping past Oregon in the Las Vegas bowl to wrap up an impressive 11-2 campaign, yet in their opener at Arizona they struggled and only put up 13 points.  Look at 2009, Max Hall's senior season, already with 2 great years of starting experience behind him and he would end up leading the Cougars to another 11-2 season, however, in the season opener they only put up 14 points (although it was against a staunch Oklahoma defense).  The Cougars have only put up more than 3 touchdowns in the opener once in the Bronco era and that was against an FCS school to open the 2008 campaign at home.  Of course, the Cougars may never have had a quarterback like Jake Heaps.  Opening on the road in a tough environment I think it will come down to the Cougars' ability to run the ball effectively and for defense to contain Ole Miss - not give up the big plays.  The statistics about running the ball from last year would indicate that when BYU controls the lines of scrimmage they win.  Hopefully, Doman will mix up the play calling and both run and pass will work.  I predict it will come down to the Cougars' offense making some critical conversions in the fourth quarter and running out the clock to preserve a hard-fought victory.

BYU 24 - Ole Miss 20